The world economy-- Catching up is so very hard to do

The emerging economies have had a great decade. That was the easy part

Sep 24th 2011 | from the print edition

THIS month Italy’s government sold a slug of five-year paper at one of its regular bond auctions. There was barely enough demand for the bonds to meet supply, even at a steep interest rate. Contrast that with the sale in August of 20 billion yuan ($3.1 billion) of paper by China in Hong Kong’s fledgling offshore market. The yield was miserly yet there were more than four times as many bids as there were bonds for sale.

國際大行解讀中國經濟

鉅亨網新聞中心　(來源：財匯資訊，摘自：中財網)　2011-09-21 11:17:14

瑞銀：未來兩年或"軟著陸"

Markets Would Rally if Greece Defaults, Blain Says

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Blain, co-head of the Special Situations Group at Newedge Group, discusses the possible consequences of a Greek debt default. He speaks with Owen Thomas and Linda Yueh on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move." (Source: Bloomberg)

Gold Set for Biggest Weekly Loss in Two Years

By Phoebe Sedgman - Sep 16, 2011 12:40 PM GMT+0800

Gold was set for the biggest weekly loss in more than two years after the European Central Bank and international policy makers coordinated to lend dollars to euro- area financial institutions, curbing haven demand.

Source: FT © The Financial Times Ltd 2011

Last updated: September 15, 2011 7:01 pm

Europe’s debt crisis--Fudge, the final frontier

opean leaders are at a fork in the road.

有「歐元之父」之稱的哥倫比亞大學教授孟岱爾（Robert Mundell）提出由美元、歐元和人民幣共組大貨幣區的構想，主張三幣之間固定匯率，使世界經濟保持穩定，引發國際間熱議。他並指出，今年稍早他在中國大陸舉行的國際金融制度研討會上，也和美國財政部長蓋納（Timothy Geithner）討論過這個問題，引起蓋納的興趣。
孟岱爾的基本思路是，大型金融危機都是由浮動匯率造成，包括1997年亞洲金融風暴和2008年全球金融海嘯。以後者為例，美元兌歐元的匯率一周內上升三成，同時金價跌三成、油價跌七成，極短時間內造成的市場震盪，對經濟產生巨大的衝擊與破壞力。所以，他建議美元與歐元的兌換應採固定匯率，美國聯準會與歐洲央行應相互支援。孟岱爾又說，這套體系尤其應該讓人民幣加入。若美元、歐元、人民幣三種貨幣間維持固定匯率，不但三方得益，全球經濟也得以穩住半壁江山，建立新的全球貨幣體系。

美聯準會主席伯南克在聯準年會上什麼救市政策都沒有推出，雖然眾人殷殷期盼QE3，但是陶冬在博客中指出，貿然推出只是為孱弱的經濟再火上加油，認為聯準會受迫於政治與通膨壓力，調整資產組合中債券的年期，加大風險權重的可能性大過實施QE3。

2011年 08月 22日 07:37

全球股市市值到底損失了多少﹖

5money moves ‘Dr. Doom’ is making now

Marc Faber readies for hyperinflation, dollar’s demise and civil unrest

By Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch

牛市熊市三步曲

在投資的領域中，牛市(Bull Market)代表市場走勢持續向上、相反熊市(Bear Market)代表市場走勢持續向下的意思，在經濟的起跌循環活動過程中，牛市和熊市會交替出現，而牛市和熊市更普遍分為三個階段，即是牛市三期和熊市三期的理論。

牛市第一期

0. 紐約匯市─債券避險買盤 支撐美元走高
0. 【美股盤後】標普重摔逾4%
0. 【歐股盤後】跌逾4% 利空多
0. 能源盤後─擔憂經濟減緩 原油大幅收低美元；【能源盤後】慘跌 經濟不妙
0. 貴金屬盤後─投資人奔逃 黃金衝上1822美元；【金屬盤後】金價續登天 銅跌
0. 克魯曼：義大利和西班牙或走出危機 但脫離歐元區的風險升高
0. 以史為鑒 美股標普500指數將再創新低 因暴跌需要時間來治療

紐約匯市─債券避險買盤 支撐美元走高

U.S. Stocks Tumble on Global Economy, European Funding Concerns

Morgan Stanley Cuts Global Growth Forecast With U.S. ‘Close’ to Recession

Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for global growth this year, citing an “insufficient” policy response to Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, weakened confidence and the prospect of fiscal tightening.

US stockmarket crashes and GDP

After the crash

Aug 16th 2011, 14:59 by The Economist online

Wells Fargo analysts: Gold bubble will burst

Gold prices, now driving toward their 11th straight year of annual gains after climbing 26 percent thus far this year, are set to crash and burn, a financial services company is warning.

According to analysts with Wells Fargo & Company, the precious metal is prepped to suddenly lose value, Bloomberg reports. Having seen other commodities' bubbles burst, the firm wrote the report out of consideration for gold enthusiasts, the lead analyst told the news service.

Google to Buy Motorola Mobility for $12.5 Billion to Gain Wireless Patents

Buffett Made Biggest Bets on Stocks This Year

European, U.S. Index Futures Drop, Euro Slides

The euro slid from a three-week high versus the dollar and European equity-index futures fell before data forecast to show economic growth for the region slowed. Asian stocks rose as Google Inc. (GOOG)’s largest acquisition boosted technology companies.

歐美股市全倒！

2011-08-11 工商時報 【記者蕭麗君、王曉伯／綜合外電報導】

大蕭條來了?全球經濟的修復週期起碼需要10年

美國主權信用評級遭調降，所引發的全球債市、股市、期市的巨幅震蕩，是新一輪經濟恐慌的開始，更可視為全球經濟延續2008年次貸危機後，真正走向經濟大蕭條的標誌。

You should nearly always buy into panic just like you should sell hysteria. -

in CNBC, August 9, Jim Rogers

Well...加油...

PARIS—The French government said it was ready to do whatever it takes to stick to its deficit-reduction plans, signaling its determination to remain among the six euro-zone nations still sporting a top-notch triple-A credit rating.

History of American money can be traced back to the times of colonial America. The Continental Congress had made the use of dollar legal even before American independence. This dollar was based on Spanish milled dollars that were prevalent in the economy of colonial America. The Spanish milled dollars were a set of 8 coins and were principally based on Spanish economy.

The Panic of 1873, also referred to as the Depression of 1873 by historians, was a major economic depression that affected United States and several other countries in Europe, such as Germany, Britain and even Austria. This crisis lasted for around 5 to 6 years (1873 - 1879). There are several factors which led to this economic crisis, the Jay Cooke and Company going bankrupt being a major reason. If you want to know what was the Panic of 1873, its causes, major impacts, and the Panic of 1873 significance, then just keep reading this article.

Failed banks, widespread foreclosures, impaired agriculture sector and manufacturing industry, large scale unemployment and homelessness.... these were some of the predominant characteristics of the US economy during the Panic of 1819 - the first major financial crisis in the American history. It was one of the most hard-hitting crisis that the nation had ever witnessed - largely because the national financial system was still in its infancy and never before had the Americans witnessed crisis of such magnitude in their country.

Before going into deeper analysis of the subject matter, I cannot avoid mentioning the favorite joke of economists on recession and depression. When other people lose their jobs, it's a recession. When you lose yours, it's a depression.. The joke involves some subjective judgment to differentiate recession from depression. Definition of recession and depression follows no ironclad rule. It can be differentiated only by judging the nature of economic downfall and its outcome. Both are similar in few aspects when negative impacts are taken into account. The difference lies only on the effects and the lasting effect of recession and depression. The former lasts for short period while the latter has long lasting effect. Recession vs depression has been studied by economists deeply and you can also get a better concept after reading this article. Read more on economic recession and depression - definition and difference.

Marc Faber on Gold, Silver, Deflation and the U.S. Economy

QE2吹起的一個大泡沫 

Christine Lagarde will lead the IMF

Jun 28th 2011, 17:54 by R.A. |WASHINGTON

The opportunity for Europe’s leaders to avoid disaster is shrinking fast

Jun 23rd 2011 | from the print edition

個人覺得寫的還不錯...

 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

是否會走入大蕭條?...我真希望不會。 

美媒:即便是中國也躲不過大蕭條

獅王金諫：希臘評級下調 黃金美元同漲

鉅亨網新聞中心　(來源：財匯資訊，摘自：中國黃金資訊網)　2011-05-23 11:17:07

 現貨黃金上周五最高觸及1,515.60美元/盎司，最低下探至1,486.50美元/盎司，收報1,512.90美元/盎司，上漲18.60美元/盎司，漲幅1.24%，白銀走勢沒有黃金強勢，依然沒有突破盤整區間。

Bullish on commodities for long term: Mark Mobius

Fund）領導危機中獲得更強的政治地位﹐即便最終接替多米尼克•斯特勞斯-卡恩（Dominique Strauss-Kahn）的新總裁不是來自亞洲。

隨便哪一個人都會告訴你，金價有泡沫。早在金價還是500美元一盎司的時候他們就這麼說了。

　　但這是一個很有趣的泡沫，也是我見過的惟一一次沒什麼人持有這種泡沫資産。

金價泡沫終有破滅時

隨著美聯儲會議結果的公佈，美國股指和金價再創新高，投資者都在為美聯儲的“英明決策”歡欣鼓舞，黃金更是被視為 “永恒的保值品”。冷靜思考，現在美聯儲的貨幣政策根本沒有可持續性，美國不可能和日本一樣，長期維持零利率，美國經濟的復蘇步伐已經比預估的快。同樣 的，黃金也不可能成為永恒的“保值品”，那些為了維持金價而為金本位制招魂的分析師，最終會為自己的行為打造一口“黃金棺”。