keep learning, keep moving

巴菲特、李嘉誠等"神人"都來抄底了!
2011年08月16日 07:41   來源：北京晨報   

巴菲特

李嘉誠
    晨報訊(記者王潔)別人恐懼、有人貪婪。“股神”級的人物們這一次都抄到了底。在經歷了近一週的恐慌後，全球股市開始陸續出現反彈，在暴跌之中抄底的“神人”們也逐漸浮出了水面。巴菲特、李嘉誠，A股市場的“國家隊”……他們踏準了入場時機，又一次賺到了錢。
    第一位抄底者是“股神”巴菲特。據外電報道，儘管上周美股暴跌，但巴菲特卻開始不斷買入股票，其認為股票價格越低越有買入動力。“新一輪經濟衰退不會到來。”據說，巴菲特說這句話時氣定神閒，但身在美國的基金經理早已成為驚弓之鳥。有機構客戶甚至對投行表示，不願意再玩這樣的遊戲了，太瘋狂了。因為過去的一週，美國股市大漲大跌，以道瓊斯工業指數為例，上周的前4個交易日，平均每天波動超過500點，並且是今天大漲、明天大跌，打得投資者暈頭轉向。
    另一位“股神”是大洋這邊的香港富豪李嘉誠。李嘉誠也有一句經典心得被不少投資者奉為金科玉律：“要永遠相信：當所有人都衝進去的時候趕緊出來，所有人都不玩了再衝進去。”暴跌過後，李嘉誠果然衝了進去。據聯交所股權資料，李嘉誠繼8月5日股災入市後，上週一、週二、週四均入市買入長江實業(00001)，由112港元買到105.8港元，涉資近億港元。據悉，8月份以來，李嘉誠連續第五度增持長江實業，持倉量已升至42.66%。昨天，香港股市全線反彈。
    而在A股市場上，堪稱“股神”的則要數社保基金。有“國家隊”之稱的社保基金，在市場最恐慌的8月9日毅然出手。當天，“社保100億元入市抄底”的消息令A股市場毅然逆轉，上證綜指在全球股市中一枝獨秀，上漲32.33點，收于2581.51點。昨天，有消息稱，此次社保基金抄底的首選標的是場內ETF基金，而8月份以來，社保基金已在場內增倉ETF達40億元，向其委託人的資金劃撥為60億元。
（責任編輯：邵希煒）

 
為什麼要解釋雙底衰退?....因為我們已經進入雙底衰退時期....
 

很棒的 Double-Dip Recession(雙底衰退)解釋Viedio!!! 值得一看!!!
http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/double-dip-recession#comments

歐美股市全倒！

2011-08-11 工商時報 【記者蕭麗君、王曉伯／綜合外電報導】

大蕭條來了?全球經濟的修復週期起碼需要10年
2011年08月11日 08:07   來源：人民網   
美國主權信用評級遭調降，所引發的全球債市、股市、期市的巨幅震蕩，是新一輪經濟恐慌的開始，更可視為全球經濟延續2008年次貸危機後，真正走向經濟大蕭條的標誌。

You should nearly always buy into panic just like you should sell hysteria. -
in CNBC, August 9, Jim Rogers
Definition: In a market that's up one day and down the next, strategists told CNBC Wednesday there are definitely buying opportunities—but there are also places to sell.

Well...加油...
PARIS—The French government said it was ready to do whatever it takes to stick to its deficit-reduction plans, signaling its determination to remain among the six euro-zone nations still sporting a top-notch triple-A credit rating.
France "won't deviate one iota from its public-finance balancing plans," Budget Minister Valérie Pécresse told French radio Tuesday, as the cost of insuring the country's sovereign debt against default hovered around record levels.
Although much of the French government is on summer holiday, Ms. Pécresse and Finance Minister François Baroin have been speaking on French media since Friday's downgrade of U.S. debt, as they seek to ensure the euro zone's second-largest economy isn't swept up in a broad reassessment of the creditworthiness of highly indebted developed countries.

  It is a parallel that is seducing Wall Street bankers and investors: 2011 as a repeat of 2008, the history of financial turmoil playing in one endless loop.As a big fund manager muttered darkly this past weekend while heading into the office to prepare for a tumultuous Monday, "The sense of déjà vu is almost sickening."Those who think of 2011 as "2008—The Sequel" now have their very own "Lehman moment." Just substitute Friday's historic downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Standard & Poor's for the collapse of the investment bank in September 2008, et voilà, you have a carbon copy of an event that made the unthinkable happen and spooked markets around the globe.

The Federal Reserve voted to hold interest rates at zero(0.00%-0.25%), and indicated it would keep rates there through the middle of 2013.
如果真的是這個聯準會決議導致昨天美股反彈...hmmm...​still can't see any light ahead...>"<

History of American money can be traced back to the times of colonial America. The Continental Congress had made the use of dollar legal even before American independence. This dollar was based on Spanish milled dollars that were prevalent in the economy of colonial America. The Spanish milled dollars were a set of 8 coins and were principally based on Spanish economy.
After the formation of United States of America and independence of colonies, the Congress recognized and symbolically made dollar, the official currency of United States on 8th August 1786. A systematic research and set of proposals later, the Congress and founding fathers of United States established the system of dollars and evaluated it's international market value. Under the leadership of Alexander Hamilton, the dollar system was integrated in United States economy with the approval of Coinage act of 1792.
The United States dollar during this time were backed by deposits of gold and sliver. It meant that this currency was non-fiat money, and gold and silver worth value of the said denomination was collected and stored as an asset, before circulating the actual bank notes and coins in the economy. Upon the passing of 1878, Bland-Allison Act, the Congress authorized use of silver standard legal tender coinage in minting. Due to this act, monetary value of minted coin remained the same. Irrespective of the actual weight and value of metal that was used to make the coin, Silver was stored as an asset by the government. However, its market value did not affect the denomination and valuation of the dollar that was in circulation. The silver coinage had to be replaced with gold, due to constant fluctuations of the cost of silver.
The Gold Standard Act was passed in the Congress on 14th of March 1900. This act made gold, the standard legal tender coinage of the United States. During World War I, due to unstable demand-supply relation in European market, corporations based in United States began to suffer financially. The treasury department eased the standards, so that the corporations could stop trade with European nations and could also pay off loans taken from European banks and governments. During the course of the war, United States refrained from very active participation in the war. It was the only nation to maintain the gold standard from 1915-1917, which was the era of the worst economic conditions. The gold standard was relaxed and suspended again during the great depression, to help business organizations recover heavy losses. The standard was however applicable for international trade, even during the depression.
The monetary system of United States was changed in 1963, when the concept of fiat money was introduced in the economy. According to the fiat system, the currency was not backed by storage of resources such as gold and silver. The non-fiat money was bought back by the treasury department in 1868. The new bank notes that were distributed on the basis of fiat money are termed to be a legal tender by the treasury department.
Today even after many changes, United States legal tender money has proved to be a success and is circulated, monitored and distributed by the treasury department. The bank notes are known as green backs due to their distinctive green color. There are 5 denominations of the notes that range from $1 to $100. The current fiat system has become so successful and wide spread, that it is used as a measurement of currency by many nations to establish value of their own currency in international market. For example: $1= Rs.48.065, $1= £0.6109 (current values).

The Panic of 1873, also referred to as the Depression of 1873 by historians, was a major economic depression that affected United States and several other countries in Europe, such as Germany, Britain and even Austria. This crisis lasted for around 5 to 6 years (1873 - 1879). There are several factors which led to this economic crisis, the Jay Cooke and Company going bankrupt being a major reason. If you want to know what was the Panic of 1873, its causes, major impacts, and the Panic of 1873 significance, then just keep reading this article.
Panic of 1873: Summary
Before going into the causes and impact of the Panic of 1873, in details, let us see a summary of this economic recession so that you have an idea as to what it actually was. United States had just recovered from the Civil War and the country was now busy in constructing railroads and between the year 1866 to 1873, USA had laid around 35,000 miles of rail tracks across the country. Economic situation in USA that time was strong and no one was expecting a crisis like this. These railroads were constructed on the basis of money borrowed from various banks and industries and they were readily giving out a lump sum as everyone believed that the railroads would really flourish and also because this was considered to be the major non agricultural industry. But problem arose when the stock market in Vienna crashed and when two of the major banks in the United States; Jay Cooke and Company and New York Warehouse and Security Company, went bankrupt. The first country to be affected by this crisis were Austria and the United States. The railroad business in USA, which was booming came to a halt and half of America's transport business was affected, people were unemployed, companies started closing down, education suffered and since the Government changed hands from the Republicans to the Democrats, the African American people's dreams of social reform was now just a dream. Now that we know about the Panic of 1873 in brief, let us see what caused the Panic of 1873.
Panic of 1873: Causes
There are several factors which led to the Panic of 1873. Some of these factors have already been discussed above in brief. Let us now see each of them in details.
Downfall of the Jay Cooke and Company (September 1873)
Just after the end of the Civil War, after agriculture, the railroad industry became the second largest employer and the industry during this time was booming. Several banks and industries were willingly investing in the railway industry. In September 1873, the Jay Cooke and Company which was a major component of the banking establishment in America, found that it was unable to market millions of dollars in the Northern Pacific Railway bonds. The company had become completely bankrupt and this in turn led to series of economic issues. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) was closed down for nearly 10 days, several factories also closed down and unemployment became a major issue. Finally on 18th September, the Jay Cooke Company declared itself bankrupt.
Coinage Act (1873)
Another cause of the Panic of 1873 was the Coinage Act. The German Empire, in 1871, decided to cease the coining of silver thaler coins. This in turn led to a decline in the demand for silver coins and pressure was exerted on the value of this precious element. A large amount of silver was being mined in USA and a fall in the demand of silver, obviously affected the economical situation in there. Hence the Coinage Act was introduced and it was this Act which changed United States policy towards silver.
Before introducing this Act, America minted both types of coins (gold and silver), but the passing of the Act meant that America could mint or buy only gold coins but not silver. As a result of this Act, the prices of silver became less and it also affected the interest of the Western miners and they labeled the Act as "The Crime of '73", it reduced the supply of money which in turn affected the farmers and all those who were in debt and some investors also started shying away from any long term bonds.
Panic of 1873: Impact
Now that we have seen the two major Panic of 1873 causes, let us now see what was the impact of the crisis on the countries which were affected. Besides United States, there were some other European countries as well which were deeply affected by the crisis. Before the Jay Cooke company became bankrupt, in June 1873, the stock market in Vienna crashed and this lead to a series of downfall in the markets of Germany, Great Britain and the rest of Europe. In United States, besides the Jay Cooke, several other banks and factories started closing down, wages were reduced, workers were fired from their jobs, several people became unemployed, the NYSE was closed down for 10 days and a large number of the railroads also became bankrupt and there was a fall in the real estate value as well. The American railroad unions went on a strike in the year 1877 (Great Railroad Strike) and the trains were stopped from traveling from one place to another. In 1877, several lumbering companies also became bankrupt.
Due to this poor economic condition, people now turned against the Republican Government which at that time was being led by President Ulysses S. Grant. They turned to the Democrats for help and this in turn was a bad news for the African Americans whose dreams about social reforms remained just a dream. The Southern Black people were the ones who suffered the most. The Northerners became less involved fighting for the rights of the Afro Americans. The suppressed organizations like the Ku Klux Klan, resumed their terror campaigns against these Afro Americans and also the Republicans and by the time the crisis lifted, the Southern whites were already taking control.
Hence, now you know all the factors that were responsible for the Panic of 1873, the great economic crisis in the American history, and also what were the impacts of this major economic crisis. The crisis prevailed for around 5 to 6 years i.e. from 1873 to 1879. It was with great difficulty that the people of America and the rest of Europe came out of this depression.